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AAII Sentiment Survey: A Complete Guide
The AAII Sentiment Survey measures individual investors' expectations for the stock market over the next six months, functioning as one of the most trusted contrarian indicators since 1987.
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Edited by Ricardo Laizo5 Min read | Invest
The AAII Sentiment Survey currently shows bullish sentiment at 39.8%, neutral at 27.0%, and bearish at 33.2%. Bullish sentiment sits just above the long-term average of 37.5%, while bearish sentiment remains elevated after several weeks of heightened pessimism.
But what is this indicator, what do all these numbers mean, and how can you use them? Learn everything you need to know in this article.
Description
The AAII Sentiment Survey is a weekly survey that asks members if they are "Bullish," "Bearish," or "Neutral" on the stock market for the next six months. It's widely used as a contrarian indicator.
Effect
Bullish responses can forecast positive and negative price movements. Bearish responses can suggest positive price movements in the future. Neutral responses can estimate the magnitude and direction of future price movements.
Limitations
It doesn't reflect the views of professional investors and analysts, so it only shows what one group of investors thinks. It doesn't account for the catalysts that may lead to a change of trend.
What is the AAII Sentiment Survey?
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is a weekly survey of stock market sentiment amongst individual investors in the US. The survey is widely used as a contrarian indicator.
The American Association of Individual Investors is a nonprofit organization representing individual investors. It aims to educate and assist investors by providing education on stock market portfolios, financial planning, and retirement accounts. Founded in 1978, the AAII has conducted the sentiment survey since 1987.
The AAII sentiment survey comprises a single question: What Direction Do AAII Members Feel The Stock Market Will Be In The Next 6 Months? Just three answers are possible: bullish, neutral or bearish.
Survey results are published weekly, and simply consist of the percentage of respondents that fall into each category.
How to interpret the AAII survey?
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey provides three readings and is regarded as a contrarian indicator. The idea behind an indicator like this is that sentiment is bullish at market tops and bearish at market bottoms. When too many investors are bullish, a selloff becomes more likely, and when too many investors are bearish a rally becomes more likely.
Investors should consider all three levels, although individual readings also provide information.
The percentage for each category should be compared to its historical high, low and average level.
Bullish percentage – If the percentage of bullish responses is high, too many investors may be optimistic about the stock market. This implies that investors are already long, and there may be no more buyers to take prices higher.
Neutral percentage – If the percentage of neutral responses is high it suggests a high level of uncertainty amongst investors. This also implies that investors are building up cash, which increases buying power for the future. Alternatively, a low percentage of neutral responses indicates that investors are more certain about the direction of the stock market and are positioned accordingly. This can lead to large moves in the index if a new trend develops in either direction.
Bearish percentage – If the percentage of bearish responses is high, there may be too many bearish investors. This implies that investors have already reduced exposure and are ready to start buying again.
What are the current AAII Sentiment Survey levels?
As of late February 2026, the sentiment levels are:
Bullish - 39.8%
Neutral - 27.0%
Bearish - 33.2%
Bullish sentiment has been volatile in early 2026, swinging from 49.5% in mid-January to 33.2% in late February before recovering to 39.8%. Neutral sentiment remains unusually low, sitting below its historical average of 31.5% for most of the past 80+ weeks.
The following are the historical averages, lowest and highest reading, and standard deviation ranges for each response. This data covers the 1987 to 2025 period.
| Sentiment | Average | Lowest | Highest | 1 Std Deviation Range | 2 Std Deviation Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 37.5% | 12% | 75% | 27 to 48% | 16 to 59% |
| Neutral | 31.5% | 7.7% | 62% | 22 to 41% | 13 to 50% |
| Bearish | 31.0% | 6% | 70% | 21 to 41% | 11 to 51% |
What are the useful AAII levels for investing?
Bullish response percentage
The bullish response percentage can forecast positive and negative price movements.
Bullish readings below 20% are quite reliable at predicting strong returns.
Bullish readings above 50% usually precede low positive returns, but can also lead to substantial corrections and bear markets. High bullish readings should be considered a sign that bullish momentum is slowing and may reverse sharply.
Neutral response percentage
The neutral response percentage can estimate the magnitude and direction of future price movements.
Low neutral readings (below 20%) often result in increased volatility with larger than normal price movements in both directions.
High neutral ratings (above 50%) usually lead to gains for the stock market.
Bearish response percentage
The bearish response percentage is most useful when it suggests positive price movements in the future.
Bearish readings above 40% typically lead to higher returns for the index, though larger than average declines can still occur.
Low bearish readings have little predictive value
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How to use the AAII Sentiment Survey
Like most contrarian indicators, the AAII sentiment index is most useful when readings reach extreme levels. Any reading that is close to two standard deviations above or below the long-term average is worth paying attention to.
When you identify an extreme bullish or bearish response level, you can also consider the percentage of neutral responses to estimate how investors may be positioned and whether they may have large cash balances.
Tracking this data over time on an AAII sentiment chart makes it easier to spot these extremes visually and compare them against S&P 500 price action.
This indicator should not be used in isolation. An extreme level may be reached some time before the market makes a top or bottom. You will need to use other indicators like moving averages, volume, and volatility for confirmation and timing.
While this indicator can assist in forecasting, it is especially useful for managing exposure and risk. Exposure can be reduced when sentiment reaches bullish extremes, and increased when bearish extremes are reached.
What are the limitations of the AAII indicator?
The AAII Sentiment Survey reflects the views of individual investors and can give us a good idea of how they are positioned. It doesn’t reflect the views of professional investors and analysts, so it really only shows us what one group of investors thinks. It also doesn’t account for the catalysts that may lead to a change of trend.
The AAII sentiment levels are likely to reach extremes some time before a trend change occurs. This is particularly true in prolonged bull markets when prices can continue to rise for months or years after a high percentage of bullish responses is reached.
This indicator can forecast what may happen – but not what will happen. It needs to be used alongside other indicators for timing and confirmation.
Is the AAII Sentiment Survey a reliable indicator?
This indicator is very useful when considering what may happen next in the stock market, but it isn’t always reliable as a standalone indicator. It is very useful when used with other tools and indicators. These metrics include:
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the AAII Sentiment Survey?
The AAII Sentiment Survey is a weekly poll conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) since 1987. It asks members a single question: what direction do they feel the stock market will move over the next six months? Respondents choose bullish, neutral, or bearish. The results are published weekly and widely used as a contrarian indicator.
What is the current AAII sentiment reading?
As of late February 2026, the AAII Sentiment Survey shows bullish sentiment at 39.8%, neutral at 27.0%, and bearish at 33.2%. Bullish sentiment is slightly above its historical average of 37.5%, while neutral sentiment remains well below its long-term average of 31.5%. Check the official AAII survey page for the latest weekly update.
Is AAII sentiment a reliable indicator?
The AAII Sentiment Survey is most useful when readings reach extreme levels, roughly two standard deviations from the historical average. It works best as a contrarian indicator: extreme bullish readings often precede market pullbacks, while extreme bearish readings tend to precede rallies. However, it should not be used in isolation. Combine it with other indicators like the Put/Call Ratio, Shiller P/E Ratio, or the Buffett Indicator for better timing.
What does AAII stand for?
AAII stands for the American Association of Individual Investors. It is a nonprofit organization founded in 1978 that provides education and resources to help individual investors manage their own portfolios. AAII has over 150,000 members and is best known for its weekly Sentiment Survey.
How do you use AAII sentiment as a contrarian indicator?
Contrarian investors use AAII sentiment by looking for extreme readings. When bullish sentiment exceeds 50%, it may signal that too many investors are already positioned long, leaving fewer buyers to push prices higher. When bearish sentiment exceeds 40%, it often suggests investors have already reduced exposure and may be ready to buy again. The neutral reading also matters: low neutral readings (below 20%) often precede increased volatility, while high neutral readings (above 50%) tend to lead to market gains.
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