The data tells a clear story: passive funds have outperformed active funds for most investors over the past decade.
According to the Morningstar Active/Passive Barometer for year-end 2025, only 38% of active strategies survived and beat their passive counterparts. That number drops to just 21% over a 10-year timeframe. The longer the time horizon, the worse active funds look relative to their passive competitors.
The SPIVA Scorecard confirms this trend: over 15 years, more than 90% of large-cap active equity funds underperform the S&P 500. These aren't close races, either. The gap widens as fees compound and active managers struggle to consistently identify winning stocks.
Where Active Funds Struggle
Large-cap U.S. equities represent the toughest battlefield for active managers. These markets are highly efficient, with thousands of analysts scrutinizing every company.
Active U.S. stock pickers posted only a 37% success rate in 2025. The combination of higher fees, trading costs, and the difficulty of consistently picking winners creates a nearly insurmountable challenge.
Even top-performing active funds rarely maintain their position. This problem, known as performance persistence, means last year's winners often become next year's laggards.
Where Active Funds Shine
International equities favor active management, with active international stock fund managers posting a 52% success rate in 2025, up 8 percentage points year-over-year.
Fixed-income markets have also historically favored active portfolio management, though active corporate-bond manager success rates dropped sharply to just 4.4% in 2025. Small-cap stocks and emerging markets offer better opportunities for skilled active mutual funds vs passive mutual funds.
These markets are less efficient, giving talented managers room to add value through research and selection.